“Super Pavario” Outduels “Doc Halladay”

If that title doesn’t sound like either a comic book or a video game than I don’t know what would.

Sporting one of the fullest and creepiest moustaches I have ever seen, Carl Pavano pitched the Twins to a series win yesterday afternoon against the Philadelphia Phillies. Pavano went the distance, marking the second time he has done so this year. His line for the day included 1 run on 4 hits while walking none and striking out just 2. Pavano didn’t need many strikeouts as he claimed 14 of his 27 outs via ground balls.

Other than making him far less popular with the ladies, Pavano’s newfound facial hair has provided him with somewhat of a performance boost. Over his last 3 appearances vs. the Royals, Rockies and Phillies (the mustache first appeared prior to his outing against the Royals) Pavano is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 24 IP with 3 walks and 8 strikeouts.

This is exactly what the Twins pictured when they avoided arbitration by inking the Super Mario lookalike to a 1-year $7MM deal last offseason. A solid veteran presence who can pitch late into games, induce a lot of ground balls, and win 12-15 ballgames with an ERA below 4.00. One thing is for sure, with the rumors swirling around about Minnesota being a possible destination for Cliff Lee, I would be extremely comfortable with a postseason rotation that includes Liriano, Lee, Pavano and more than likely Baker.

I would fully support the idea of the entire Twins roster growing moustaches. If they have the same effect on everybody as they did on Pavano, the Twins may begin to resemble the 1927 Yankees in terms of their on-field performance (as those moustaches clearly wouldn’t fit the “clean cut” dress code of the pinstripes).

One area that I have failed to write about yet this season, and I feel is being overlooked is the success of the leftfielder for our beloved Twins. Delmon Young has “quietly” been putting up some monster numbers this year out of the 7 spot in the lineup. Outside of Justin Morneau, who is having an MVP caliber season, the argument can be made that Delmon Young has been the Twins’ second best hitter this season.

I am not trying to make a case that Delmon Young is somehow a better hitter than Joe Mauer, because we all know that would be ridiculous and asinine. But in terms of numbers, Young currently not only has a higher batting average than Mr. Mauer, but has also driven in more runs, while also clobbering nearly 3 times as many homeruns. Young’s statistics through .306/.343/.502 with 8 HR and 43 RBI, and those 43 RBIs are second on the Twins only to Justin Morneau’s 47.

Another area that has also been overlooked is the number of “clutch hits” that Young has this season. He has, on multiple occasions, delivered a big hit for the Twinkies at just the right time, with his latest coming on Saturday afternoon vs. the Phillies when he singled in the top of the 11th inning to give the Twins an 11-10 lead they would not relinquish.

Although I believe his decreased playing weight this season (Young lost 35 pounds in the offseason) has given more speed, quickness and flexibility, I fully believe that Young’s emergence in 2010 has mostly to do with his age. People forget that young is merely 24 years old and yet is already playing in his 5th major league season. Most players by age 24 are either just reaching the majors or beginning their 2nd or 3rd years.

People were way too quick in writing off Young as a “bust” based on his first two seasons with the Twins. He is just now developing the plate discipline and baseball IQ necessary to be a star in this league, and I don’t see his 2010 numbers as a fluke. I fully expect Young to be one of our better players for the remainder of the year, and to be a staple in left field for the Twins in years to come.

The Twins’ “stretch of aces” continues this week as they are set to face Yovani Gallardo Thursday afternoon in Milwaukee and Johan Santana Saturday in New York. This stretch of interleague road games comes to an end Sunday in New York before the Twins return home for a fun 7 game home stand when they will face the Tigers for 3 before welcoming the Tampa Bay Rays for 4.

Opening Day at Target Field

There isn’t a superlative in the English language capable of describing the new home of the Minnesota Twins. Although I had previously visited an empty Target Field a few weeks back during a season ticket holder open house, yesterday’s opening day experience can be summed up in two words… “Awe inspiring.”

The above photo shows only the panoramic view of Target Field reflecting off of the lenses of my sunglasses, and if you were able to scroll down you would more than likely find my mouth hanging wide open.

My girlfriend, Jenny, and I arrived at the ballpark around 1:45 following a 10-block walk through the skyway from the University of St. Thomas. This walk, due to my excitement and impatience, seemed like it took about an hour. As we moved through Target Center and Target Field slowly came into sight, I could feel my heart start beating faster, and before I knew it I was 6 steps ahead of Jenny and had to be reeled back in.

The amount of people on the Plaza was astounding. There were people huddling around the newly unveiled statue of Kirby Puckett rounding second base following his walk-off homerun during game 6 of the 1991 World Series. Many others were anxiously waiting for their chance to climb up into the pocket of the giant golden glove to have their picture taken.

I was on a direct line toward the Tradition Wall, only to be stopped once along the way to grab a bag of kettle corn (a must for every Twins game as this is the snack of choice for my usual game partner). Back in June, I suggested that it might be a good gift idea for Father’s Day to purchase a spot on the tradition wall. As I walked up to panel 5 of the wall titled “History,” we quickly found my father’s spot on the wall, “Kevin Beck & Family.”

It seemed only fitting to enter the stadium in right field through gate 34, as Kirby Puckett was my boyhood idol (not to mention I was wearing his jersey). We were immediately greeted with some wonderful SWAG (stuff we all get), including an opening day homer hanky and certificate commemorating our attendance at the first regular season game at Target Field. Had we arrived earlier we would have also received a free hat.

After a two minutes of random stopping and staring at various aspects of the masterpiece that is this ballpark, we decided to head to our seats in section 122 as the pregame festivities were about to begin.

Upon taking our seats under the overhang of the legends club, we were wondering why nobody had mentioned that we would be sitting in the designated “alcohol section," which could be described as the exact opposite of the family section which used to reside in the upper right field corner of the Metrodome. Obviously Target Field does not include designated “alcohol sections,” however, nearly every person surrounding us was absolutely bombed. At one point during the 5^th inning, a guy who appeared to be in his late twenties passed out in his seat, still holding what seemed to be his 12^th beer, began drooling all over himself, and woke up surrounded by 2 security guards and a Twins official who quickly handed him a small leaflet containing the “Twins Code of Conduct.”

As the pregame ceremonies rolled along, the emotions began to take over. It was awesome to see everybody from Shannon Stewart to Jack Morris raising flags in left field, a Minnesota born purple-heart recipient raising the flag on the original Metropolitan Stadium flag pole in right field, and the sheer magnitude of the American flag coupled with an F-16 fly-over and a superb rendition of the national anthem was enough to bring tears to your eyes.

But what really got me were two specific events; when Kirby Puckett Jr. was introduced, and when the historic Twins video was played on the screen before introducing the batting orders. Jenny, who was touching my arm at the time, held it up and called out the fact that she could not only feel but also see the goosebumps on my forearm.

These goosebumps only continued as the Twins took the field to the sounds of the “We’re Gonna Win Twins,” transitioning into the Black Eyed Peas anthem “I Gotta Feeling.” As Pavano readied to throw the first ever regular season pitch at Target Field, the crowd of 39,504 got progressively louder, and Pavano proceeded to throw a ball… eventually giving up a single to Marco Scutaro.

That buzz kill didn’t last long as Pavano quickly picked off Scutaro before surrendering a double to Pedroia and eventually getting out of the first inning unscathed. The Twins didn’t waste time making “firsts” history as Denard Span drew the first walk and later scored the first run with Michael Cuddyer recording the first RBI. The “firsts” continued as Span later stole the first base at Target Field, Jason Kubel delivered the first homerun, Jon Rauch recorded the first save and Pavano was credited with the first win, his second of the year.

As we made our way toward the exits, I couldn’t help but notice just how fast we were able to not only get to the concourse from our seats, but also once we were in the concourse, how fast we were able to get to the exit. Not once did we come to any sort of a “bottleneck” where foot traffic was at a standstill. This is due mostly in part to the wider concourses (and probably to the fact that many people were hanging around their seats a bit longer to soak in just a few more seconds of Target Field).

As we exited through Target Plaza, the sounds reminiscent of the Metrodome were the same, there were a couple of guys banging on metal and plastic 5-gallon buckets, and the occasional man playing the same riff on an acoustic guitar over and over, but the feeling was totally different. This time I wasn’t walking away thinking, “how much longer do I have to get literally blown out of the doors of the Metrodome and wish that the next time I attended a game we would be outdoors?” I now could turn around, look at the amazing view into Target Field and know that for more than likely the rest of my life, I will be attending Twins games at this amazing ballpark. I absolutely can’t wait to go back!

Please feel free to comment not only with thoughts on this post, but also with recommendations for future posts. I love hearing feedback! Thanks for reading!

Reflecting on the Opening Series

Have I mentioned that I love this time of year?

The Twins opened up the 2010 season on Monday night at 9:05 in Anaheim, facing an Angels team that looks a bit different than it did last season. After seeing John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Vladimir Guerrero, Darren Oliver and Gary Matthews Jr. depart via free agency, the Angels signed Hideki Matsui, the 2009 World Series MVP, to make up for the losses of Figgins and Guerrero. They also acquired Joel Pinero and Fernando Rodney to fill the pitching staff voids left by Lackey and Oliver.

There were 2 things I knew for sure going into this series with the Angels; I would not be sleeping much throughout the week, and many Twins fans would make unnecessary assumptions based on the small sample sizes of the season’s first few games.

Both of my assumptions were correct, as I have averaged a mere 6.5 hours of sleep every night since Monday, and following the Twins’ loss Monday night, the phone lines of local sports radio stations and comment sections of blogs were filled with endless negativity making it seem as if the sky were falling.

Denard Span went 0-5 with 3 strikeouts on Monday night, while Carlos Gomez was 4-5 with a double and a homerun in his debut with the Brewers. You would have thought that Gomez was Josh Gibson in the eyes of fatalistic Twins fans. What is it about opening day that makes people believe it is some sort of barometer to how the season will play out? Fun fact: the Twins won division titles in 2006 and 2009 after losing on opening day, so fear not, it is possible to have a successful season in spite of losing the first of 162 games.

I realize that I am losing all credibility for any inferences I might make from the opening series by ripping on people who get worked up over a single game, because let’s face it, the 4 games that make up the opening series are still a small sample size. There still is something that I feel I can comfortably say in regards to this new and improved Minnesota ball club, “these aren’t your daddy’s Twins.”

Gone are the days of the Twins playing the role of the “little engine that could,” both in terms of the size of their payroll and their style of play. No longer will the Twins be forced to scrape and claw for every single run they score through a constant barrage of stolen bases, sacrifice bunts and general “small ball.” This current Twins roster can absolutely mash!

The Twins hit 9 homeruns during the past 4 games, Joe Mauer, Jim Thome and Brendan Harris got into the action, with Justin Morneau, JJ Hardy and Delmon young each hitting a pair. I am not claiming that this year’s team will hit 365 homeruns (which is what they are currently on pace for), eventually shattering the current record of 264 held by the 1997 Seattle Mariners. What I am saying is gone are the days of trotting out an everyday lineup with one guy having the potential to break the 20 homerun barrier (i.e. Morneau was our only 20+ homerun guy in 2008).

This year’s lineup has 7 players with 20+ homerun power (Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Thome, Young & Hardy), and 5 of those players have legitimate 30+ homerun power (Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel & Thome). I am not saying that we should expect to have 5 guys with 30 homeruns come season’s end. I don’t believe that Thome will have enough at bats to reach that mark, and I also don’t expect every one of the other four to put up those kind of power numbers all at once.

Pavano had an excellent outing Wednesday evening, giving up only 1 run over 7 innings, while striking out 6 and walking nobody. As I said on the Henry Lake show this past Saturday (as a caller, not as somebody who was being interviewed as a guest), when you look at Pavano’s FIP (4.00) and BABIP (.335) from last season, it becomes clear that his overall numbers were much worse than they should have been. I fully expect his ERA to come down much closer to his FIB of 4.00 than it was last season, and to be much less “unlucky” with his BABIP moving toward the league average of 3.03. Overall, I expect Pavano to have a nice season, surprising many fans with more wins and better numbers.

This Twins team has shown a bit of what they can do this year offensively in just the first 4 games. Also, with the exception of Jose Mijares’ abysmal performance Monday night, the bullpen has shown that it should be strong again this year. Pair that with starting pitching performances that hopefully resemble Pavano’s first start rather than Baker’s, and as I have said before, I believe the Twins to be not only the AL Central champions, but a legitimate World Series contender in 2010.

Examining the Twins’ Offseason

It’s the evening of March 2nd, the temperature for tomorrow is set to be a balmy 31 degrees in the Twin Cities, and although the sun will probably be shining, those “weather terrorists,” as Dan Barreiro so eloquently calls them, are telling us to expect snow this week...

1692 miles south of Minneapolis, in Fort Meyers, the forecast for tomorrow is around 50 degrees and partly cloudy, and as of this week it is official, Twins spring training has begun. At this time of year, as most baseball fans are, I am extremely “giddy” if you will, about the thought of baseball season. Opening day is 34 days away, with a couple of exhibition games against the St. Louis Cardinals sprinkled in just days before.

The x-factor that seems to be making this anticipation process more grueling than most years is the fact that I am not just waiting for a season, I am waiting to watch that season in a brand new outdoor ballpark, something that has seemed so foreign to Twins fans since 1981.

At this point in the offseason, with spring training now in full swing, and the rumor mill basically shut down until the weeks leading up to the July 31st trade deadline, there are basically two options of what to blog about. I could be like many other bloggers and get my hopes up by posting something about how player x is in the “best shape of his life” or how player y is “poised for a breakout year,” which both are based solely on opinion and perception. On the other hand, I could choose to break down the offseason of a particular team, examining what was done, and how it should improve (or hurt) that team in the upcoming season, based mostly off of statistics. Obviously, since I know none of the members of the Twins organization on a personal level, and have essentially no relevant insight into the player x and y type scenarios, I will choose the latter.

With that being said, here is my analysis...

Sayonara

• OF Carlos Gomez - .229/.287/.337 (Traded to Milwaukee)
• C Mike Redmond - .237/.299/.289 (Signed w/ Cleveland)
• INF Brian Buscher - .235/.360/.316 (Signed minor league deal w/ Cleveland)
• SS Orlando Cabrera - .289/.313/.430 (with Twins); .284/.316/.389 (Overall) (Signed w/ Cincinnati)
• Joe Crede – .225/.289/.414 (Unsigned FA)
• R.A. Dickey – 4.62 ERA; 1.62 WHIP; 64.1 IP; 42 K; 30 BB (Signed minor league deal w/ New York Mets)
• Bobby Keppel – 4.83 ERA; 1.56 WHIP; 54.0 IP; 32 K; 21 BB (Signed w/ Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters)
• P Ron Mahay – 2.00 ERA; 1.11 WHIP; 9.0 IP; 8 K; 3 BB (with Twins); 4.29 ERA; 1.67 WHIP; 50.1 IP; 42 K; 22 BB (Overall) (Unsigned FA)
• P Boof Bonser – Missed all of 2009 (Traded to Boston)

New Faces

• SS JJ Hardy – .229/.302/.357 (Acquired via Carlos Gomez trade)
• SP Carl Pavano – 4.64 ERA; 1.37 WHIP; 73.2 IP; 59 K; 16 BB (with Twins); 5.10 ERA; 1.38 WHIP; 199.1 IP; 147 K; 39 BB (Overall) (Re-signed one-year, $7MM; accepted arbitration)
• DH Jim Thome – .246/.366/.481 (Signed one-year, $1.5MM)
• 2B Orlando Hudson – .283/.357/.417 (Signed one-year, $5MM)
• RP Clay Condrey – 3.00 ERA; 1.21 WHIP; 42.0 IP; 25 K; 14 BB (Signed one-year, $900K
• Notable minor league signings: OF Jacque Jones, P Mike Maroth

The biggest losses from last year clearly are Gomez, Redmond and Cabrera, even though he was a partial season rental. The Gomez for Hardy swap will be interesting to follow over the next few years for one reason; he was the centerpiece of the Johan Santana trade, and the only player that seems to be somewhat legitimate. When a superstar is traded away, or in this case, one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball, you would like to make sure at least one player you receive in return becomes a staple in your lineup/rotation. With Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey appearing to be basically washes, and Deolis Guerra struggling in the minors, it would seem that Gomez would have had to be that guy.

If this deal works out, and JJ Hardy “is what Brewers fans once thought he was,” then this will be viewed as a successful deal, but if Gomez goes to Milwaukee and turns into a 30-30 type player with perennial gold glove defense (as he has been projected to be in the past), we could be kicking ourselves. As a side note, there were a lot of things to love about Gomez; his speed, his gold glove caliber defense (I still believe he is one of the top 2 defensive centerfielders in baseball, Franklin Gutierrez being the other), and his general “youthful exuberance” which was always a nice spark to have. However, I will not miss him taking mammoth hacks at off-speed pitches nowhere close to the strike zone in favorable 2-0 or 3-1 counts, having extreme trouble knowing which base to throw the baseball to in just about every situation, or his general “brain farts” that you can come to expect from young players.

When it comes to Redmond, amongst other things, his naked walks through the clubhouse will definitely be missed, and although you may scoff at that notion, those types of things are exactly what made Mike Redmond so valuable to this team over the past 5 seasons. He was a veteran presence in a locker room with a lot of young guys, and he was always there to lighten the mood, but he was also a competitor, who knew when to turn it on and off. In his first two seasons with the Twins, he put up some nice numbers in a limited role, hitting over .300 twice, with a .341 average in 190 PA in 2006. He also filled in quite nicely for Joe Mauer through some injuries, and various off days. With Jose Morales, Drew Butera and Wilson Ramos in our minor league system, and Redmond not getting any younger, it just didn’t make sense for the Twins to retain him.

If you asked Ron Gardenhire (prior to the signing of Orlando Hudson), he may tell you that the biggest loss of the offseason was not signing Orlando Cabrera. From the moment the Twins acquired him last season, he brought a certain energy to this team, which provided enough oomph (yes I used that word), to get them over the hump and eventually win the division. He was exactly what the Twins needed at that time; he was a proven winner, and had been in those types of situations before, he provided a defensive presence at shortstop (even though his range was declining), and he gave us somebody who could hold down the number 2 spot in the lineup, setting the table for Joe Mauer, Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer. His energy may be missed this season, but believe me, the Twins will be just fine up the middle.

Now on to the additions, first looking at Carl Pavano and Clay Condrey, the two pitching acquisitions of the offseason. Condrey is a sinker ball type pitcher with an extremely high groundball rate, he won’t wow anybody with velocity or strike many guys out, but he will be solid out of the bullpen, and we got him fairly cheap.

To me, Pavano accepting arbitration and eventually agreeing to a one-year, $7MM deal was an extremely important piece to the offseason puzzle. Some may look at his numbers over the past few seasons, see his high ERA and lack of innings pitched and disagree with me, but if you look a bit deeper, you will see why I believe this. Pavano pitched nearly 200 innings last year, with an ERA of 4.64, and 147 strikeouts. Although he gave up the most earned runs of his career (113 ER), there may be an explanation. Pavano’s BABIP (batting average on balls in play) which measures the batting average of baseballs only hit in play, not including strikeouts, etc., was the second highest of his career at .335, well above the major league average of .303. This shows that Pavano had some bad luck once balls were hit into play. If that number lowers, closer to the league average, look for Pavano’s ERA to come down as well.

People also seem to forget just how well Pavano pitched down the stretch for the Twins last season. The Twins pitching staff was in absolute disarray last season when Pavano came in and provided a bit of stability. Look for that to continue again this season, with a rotation that includes a rotation filled with guys who somehow continued to be looked at as “young.” For a staff that lacks a true ace, Pavano should provide some much needed veteran leadership.

The acquisition of JJ Hardy, as I mentioned earlier, will be an interesting deal to examine over the next few seasons. Obviously, if his 2009 season was just a bump in the road, and Hardy returns to his 2007-2008 form there will be no examination needed as the deal would be deemed an instant success. Anytime you would be able to bring in an all-star caliber shortstop with 25-30 homerun power to hold down a position that has been an absolute black hole for your franchise, that would be considered a good thing. However, I will say, if “ifs and buts were candies and nuts, we would all have a Merry Christmas...” The bottom line is, Hardy is going to have to forget about 2009, and return to his 2007-2008 form to prove that this was a good deal. Twins fans are well aware that past success doesn’t necessarily guarantee future success (see Delmon Young for Matt Garza/Jason Bartlett swap). The huge positive out of all this is that the Twins know who their opening day shortstop is, and believe they have a guy who will hold down the position for years to come.

The signings of Jim Thome and Orlando Hudson are really where the Twins proved that they are looking to be more than just a division champion this season. Clearly they believe they are championship contenders right now, and are looking to be more than just a doormat for the Yankees or Red Sox march to a World Series. The Thome signing was great for two reasons; they signed him for dirt cheap (one-year $1.5MM), and he provides a bench presence that will actually cause opposing managers to alter pitching decisions based on matchups. Let’s face it, Jim Leyland wasn’t sitting in the dugout during game 163 thinking to himself, “hmmm... I could bring in Fernando Rodney, but then they would just counter with Brian Buscher, and we sure as heck don't want to see him come to the plate!...” My point is, Jim Thome is a big time power threat coming off the bench, and will get somewhere around 350 plate appearances through being a DH and pinch hitting. On the days when Thome might DH, the Twins could have six guys in the lineup with 20 HR type power (if Hardy returns to 2007-2008 form).

The Orlando Hudson was the biggest signing of the offseason, and clearly the one that made the most noise across the baseball media world. This was the signing that caused writers to say, “the Twins are looking for more than just a first round exit in the playoffs this season.” I love the Hudson signing for so many reasons; I believe that Hudson was the best available second base option this offseason, he is a gold glove defender, he fits perfectly into the number 2 spot of this lineup, and he is a veteran that knows how to win. The Twins opening day lineup should look something like this; Span, Hudson, Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Young, Hardy, Punto. With Span and Hudson setting the table for Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer and Kubel, this lineup should score a lot of runs. Let’s not forget that Thome will be sprinkled in there occasionally as well. The signing of Hudson also makes the Twins rock solid defensively in the infield, allowing Punto to focus solely on third base, possibly in a platoon with Brendan Harris.

After looking at the busy offseason the Minnesota Twins have had, and taking into consideration the moves that other AL Central teams have made, I expect the Twins to win between 87-90 games and win the division. I expect the White Sox to finish second behind possibly the 2nd best starting rotation in baseball with Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Freddy Garcia. The Detroit Tigers’ signing of Johnny Damon caused me to reconsider placing them 3rd in my predictions, but I still see them falling short of the White Sox simply because of pitching. Although the Tigers will have a solid rotation featuring Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer, I just think that the losses of Curtis Granderson and Placido Polanco are too big for this team. Rounding out my AL Central predictions are the Indians coming in 4th due to rebuilding, and the Royals in 5th who seem to be constantly rebuilding.

This is my first time doing a complete offseason review, complete with predictions, and as a result I will be forced to be held accountable for these predictions throughout the season, and may end up eating my words. One thing is for sure, I am extremely excited about what the Twins did this offseason, being very active and clearly showing a commitment to winning right now. Opening day is only 34 days away, this should be a fun ride!