A Pretty Good Weekend (yes, taking 1 of 3 at Yankee Stadium qualifies)

I have been known to describe myself as an optimist. I have even gone so far as to describe myself as an “eternal optimist” in one of my posts within the last few months. I am that guy who doesn’t want to leave a game until the last out is recorded, not because I am trying to “get my money’s worth,” but rather because I fully believe that “my team” has a shot to win no matter how large the deficit.

This weekend, the Twins threatened to send me deep into pessimistic territory.

Following Saturday’s 7-1 beat down that the Yankees issued, the Twins had zero wins in their last 12 meetings with the pinstripes, including last postseason. This stretch consisted of what seemed like an infinite number of late inning, come from behind victories, including Friday nights 8-4 loss which included a 7th inning grand slam from Alex Rodriguez to put them ahead 7-4.

Saturday night I was as close as I have ever been to abandoning all optimistic hope and buying into the notion that the Twins just aren’t in the same league as the New York Yankees. I was drinking the kool-aid served up by fatalistic Twins fans that claimed they were unable to hold a late inning lead, because quite frankly, they hadn’t been able to.

My twitter post immediately following the A-Rod grand slam stated, “I think A-Rod's confidence came from the fact that he saw Guerrier wet his pants when he stepped to the plate...”

I was just about to dive head first into pessimism, and then Sunday happened...

Phil Mackey said it best on Twitter when he said, “Twins can exorcise a lot of demons here if Kubel (coldest hitter) comes through w/ bases loaded (achilles heel) against Yankees.” This came just moments before what I would consider the biggest homerun of Kubel’s career. I know that it is May, and this game is only 1 out of 162 that will be played this year. But it is less about the grand slam itself, and more about what it represents.

That homerun was “epic” (yes I just used that word) in more ways than one. It came at a time when the Twins desperately needed it. This is the year that the Twins have been dubbed as “ready to make a world series run.” One of the obstacles standing in the way is the hated Yankees. Getting swept in the Bronx to make it 13 straight losses would not have done well for the psyche of anybody on the roster.

Not only did the Twins come back in the late innings against the Yankees, something that has forever been the other way around, they did it against Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera, probably the best setup man and closer in all of baseball. To put into perspective just how huge this was, here are some facts for you; Rivera’s blown save was his first at home since 2007, a span of 51 consecutive saves. His bases loaded walk to Thome was his first issued since 2005, and the grand slam that Kubel hit was the first given up by Rivera since 2002! I would say that is reason to call the blast “epic.”

Let’s also not forget just how bad Kubel has been so far this season (.225, with 3 HR and 15 RBI), and also how bad the Twins have been with the bases loaded. This late inning comeback against arguably the best closer ever, might be just what Kubel needed to jump start his season, and also what the Twins needed to get going with the bases loaded and give them the confidence that they can win come October.

The other reason for this weekend being good for the Twins organization as a whole was the AA debut of Kyle Gibson.

“There was a time not too long ago when Kyle Gibson's name was mentioned in the same breath as Stephen Strasburg's. Judging by his recent performances in the Minnesota Twins' minor league system, it may happen again in the near future.”

Geoff Morrow of the The Patriot-News hit the nail right on the head regarding Gibson’s Saturday performance. In his debut with a terrible New Britain Rock Cats squad, Gibson went 7.1 innings, giving up zero runs on 4 hits, while walking only 1 and striking out 10. Pretty impressive for a 22 year old already pitching at AA when he didn’t throw a single minor league inning last year due to a stress fracture in his right forearm.

Gibson is on the fast track, some scouts and writers have said that we may see him pitching for the Twins as early as this September, although I believe that time won’t come until next season. Either way it is clear that the Twins have a special talent who fell to them at the #22 pick in last year’s draft, due solely to this forearm stress fracture that prior to diagnosis, many feared was the precursor to elbow problems. Prior to that injury, Gibson was pegged as a top-5 lock, I think you could say this is one time that an injury to a Twins prospect was a good thing.

I am really excited about Gibson soon joining the Twins for more than just the fact that he is a special talent. I also had the chance to speak with him briefly at TwinsFest this past winter, and he is an extremely nice guy. He is very grounded and humble, a strong Christian (he actually signed a baseball for me with a bible verse included below his name, something that I have never seen an athlete do, and I thought this was extremely cool) and seems to be a very genuine individual.

Gibson is now 5-1 with a 1.60 ERA and a K/BB ratio of 50/13 in 50.2 innings on the year, split between A+ and AA. This kid is for real and could be just the ace that this pitching staff will need for years to come.

Twins Off to a Fast Start

“Orlando Hudson smacked a high fastball into the left field bleachers to lead off the bottom of the seventh on Saturday.

-snip-

That’s when Usain Bolted. Hudson took one step, calculated trajectory and ball speed, tossed his bat, put his head down and sprinted like a man who is late for the bus and lacks cab fare.”

This quote from Jim Souhan, found in today’s Sports Sunday section of the Star Tribune not only describes O-Dawg’s reaction to what would eventually be a game winning homerun in yesterday’s win over the Royals. It also fittingly describes the beginning to the Twins 2010 season.

The Twins began the much anticipated 2010 season with a bang, winning 3 out of 4 in Anaheim against an Angels team that they have struggled against for what seems like forever (39-55 in the last 10 years, including 17-28 at Angel Stadium). They haven’t slowed down since.

The Twins are currently leading the league with a record of 9-3 and with a win yesterday, officially won their 4^th consecutive series to begin the season. This marks something the Twins have never done in the 50 years they have been in Minnesota, a feat not even accomplished the '87 and '91 seasons when they won their World Series titles.

This also puts the Twins in some very elite company across the league. The only other team in baseball who has already won their first 4 series of the season is the Yankees, last year’s World Series champions, marking the first time they have done so since Gehrig and Ruth donned the middle of the Yankee batting order in 1926. In case you were wondering, the Yankees went on to lose 4 games to 3 to the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1926 World Series, one year before going 110-44 and being regarded as quite possibly the greatest baseball team of all-time.

The Cardinals, Phillies & Giants could also become winners of their first 4 series with wins today.

The Twins have not only gotten off to a great start, but have been extremely entertaining to watch. Clearly the “giddy” feeling associated with the opening of a new ballpark has yet to wear off, and playing well should keep that spirit alive.

The new additions to this year’s team are starting to get into the act with Jim Thome and Orlando Hudson both homering in yesterday’s ballgame. For Thome, his towering blast into the pine trees beyond the center field wall was his second of the year, and Hudson’s shot off of the second deck facing in left was his first. JJ Hardy has also been a solid contributor offensively thus far, while also playing flawless defense.

Pair that with solid pitching and the offensive contributions from the rest of the lineup, and this Twins team looks like everything I expected them to be throughout my offseason optimism.

In addition to my optimism moving forward, I have couple of observations after watching the first 5 full games at Target Field:

• We have not yet seen how Target Field will play on a day-to-day basis. The wind has seemingly been different during almost every game thus far, sometimes even changing as the game progresses. It has seemed that during day games, the wind has been coming in from right and blowing out to left. Even with this wind, people were beginning to talk as if Target Field was going to be a pitchers park, until yesterday when the ball was flying out of the yard like crazy. My thoughts are that it will be fairly neutral as the season progresses, although I believe more homeruns will be hit on humid days when the temperature is a bit higher.

• Day games that begin a bit later in the afternoon or night games that begin a bit early may pose a bit of a problem for outfielders in the later innings as the sun goes down. This was something I noticed on opening day from about the 6^th or 7^th inning on as the sun came through gaps between the second and third levels and just barely peeked over the canopy between home plate and first base. This was later confirmed by comments from Mike Cameron, Kevin Youkilis and Denard Span. This shouldn’t pose much of a problem throughout the season as the Twins are only scheduled to play 6 games beginning at 3:10 and 4 beginning at 6:10.

My apologies for the length of time between this post and my last post, I had every intention of posting something around Thursday, but became a bit busy and it got pushed back until now. I will resume my former pace and hopefully post more in the coming weeks.

Please feel free to comment or e-mail me with any feedback or suggestions, but in terms of topics and anything related to the blog. I appreciate receiving feedback and accept it openly. If you enjoy reading, tell your friends!

Reflecting on the Opening Series

Have I mentioned that I love this time of year?

The Twins opened up the 2010 season on Monday night at 9:05 in Anaheim, facing an Angels team that looks a bit different than it did last season. After seeing John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Vladimir Guerrero, Darren Oliver and Gary Matthews Jr. depart via free agency, the Angels signed Hideki Matsui, the 2009 World Series MVP, to make up for the losses of Figgins and Guerrero. They also acquired Joel Pinero and Fernando Rodney to fill the pitching staff voids left by Lackey and Oliver.

There were 2 things I knew for sure going into this series with the Angels; I would not be sleeping much throughout the week, and many Twins fans would make unnecessary assumptions based on the small sample sizes of the season’s first few games.

Both of my assumptions were correct, as I have averaged a mere 6.5 hours of sleep every night since Monday, and following the Twins’ loss Monday night, the phone lines of local sports radio stations and comment sections of blogs were filled with endless negativity making it seem as if the sky were falling.

Denard Span went 0-5 with 3 strikeouts on Monday night, while Carlos Gomez was 4-5 with a double and a homerun in his debut with the Brewers. You would have thought that Gomez was Josh Gibson in the eyes of fatalistic Twins fans. What is it about opening day that makes people believe it is some sort of barometer to how the season will play out? Fun fact: the Twins won division titles in 2006 and 2009 after losing on opening day, so fear not, it is possible to have a successful season in spite of losing the first of 162 games.

I realize that I am losing all credibility for any inferences I might make from the opening series by ripping on people who get worked up over a single game, because let’s face it, the 4 games that make up the opening series are still a small sample size. There still is something that I feel I can comfortably say in regards to this new and improved Minnesota ball club, “these aren’t your daddy’s Twins.”

Gone are the days of the Twins playing the role of the “little engine that could,” both in terms of the size of their payroll and their style of play. No longer will the Twins be forced to scrape and claw for every single run they score through a constant barrage of stolen bases, sacrifice bunts and general “small ball.” This current Twins roster can absolutely mash!

The Twins hit 9 homeruns during the past 4 games, Joe Mauer, Jim Thome and Brendan Harris got into the action, with Justin Morneau, JJ Hardy and Delmon young each hitting a pair. I am not claiming that this year’s team will hit 365 homeruns (which is what they are currently on pace for), eventually shattering the current record of 264 held by the 1997 Seattle Mariners. What I am saying is gone are the days of trotting out an everyday lineup with one guy having the potential to break the 20 homerun barrier (i.e. Morneau was our only 20+ homerun guy in 2008).

This year’s lineup has 7 players with 20+ homerun power (Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Thome, Young & Hardy), and 5 of those players have legitimate 30+ homerun power (Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel & Thome). I am not saying that we should expect to have 5 guys with 30 homeruns come season’s end. I don’t believe that Thome will have enough at bats to reach that mark, and I also don’t expect every one of the other four to put up those kind of power numbers all at once.

Pavano had an excellent outing Wednesday evening, giving up only 1 run over 7 innings, while striking out 6 and walking nobody. As I said on the Henry Lake show this past Saturday (as a caller, not as somebody who was being interviewed as a guest), when you look at Pavano’s FIP (4.00) and BABIP (.335) from last season, it becomes clear that his overall numbers were much worse than they should have been. I fully expect his ERA to come down much closer to his FIB of 4.00 than it was last season, and to be much less “unlucky” with his BABIP moving toward the league average of 3.03. Overall, I expect Pavano to have a nice season, surprising many fans with more wins and better numbers.

This Twins team has shown a bit of what they can do this year offensively in just the first 4 games. Also, with the exception of Jose Mijares’ abysmal performance Monday night, the bullpen has shown that it should be strong again this year. Pair that with starting pitching performances that hopefully resemble Pavano’s first start rather than Baker’s, and as I have said before, I believe the Twins to be not only the AL Central champions, but a legitimate World Series contender in 2010.

Examining the Twins’ Offseason

It’s the evening of March 2nd, the temperature for tomorrow is set to be a balmy 31 degrees in the Twin Cities, and although the sun will probably be shining, those “weather terrorists,” as Dan Barreiro so eloquently calls them, are telling us to expect snow this week...

1692 miles south of Minneapolis, in Fort Meyers, the forecast for tomorrow is around 50 degrees and partly cloudy, and as of this week it is official, Twins spring training has begun. At this time of year, as most baseball fans are, I am extremely “giddy” if you will, about the thought of baseball season. Opening day is 34 days away, with a couple of exhibition games against the St. Louis Cardinals sprinkled in just days before.

The x-factor that seems to be making this anticipation process more grueling than most years is the fact that I am not just waiting for a season, I am waiting to watch that season in a brand new outdoor ballpark, something that has seemed so foreign to Twins fans since 1981.

At this point in the offseason, with spring training now in full swing, and the rumor mill basically shut down until the weeks leading up to the July 31st trade deadline, there are basically two options of what to blog about. I could be like many other bloggers and get my hopes up by posting something about how player x is in the “best shape of his life” or how player y is “poised for a breakout year,” which both are based solely on opinion and perception. On the other hand, I could choose to break down the offseason of a particular team, examining what was done, and how it should improve (or hurt) that team in the upcoming season, based mostly off of statistics. Obviously, since I know none of the members of the Twins organization on a personal level, and have essentially no relevant insight into the player x and y type scenarios, I will choose the latter.

With that being said, here is my analysis...

Sayonara

• OF Carlos Gomez - .229/.287/.337 (Traded to Milwaukee)
• C Mike Redmond - .237/.299/.289 (Signed w/ Cleveland)
• INF Brian Buscher - .235/.360/.316 (Signed minor league deal w/ Cleveland)
• SS Orlando Cabrera - .289/.313/.430 (with Twins); .284/.316/.389 (Overall) (Signed w/ Cincinnati)
• Joe Crede – .225/.289/.414 (Unsigned FA)
• R.A. Dickey – 4.62 ERA; 1.62 WHIP; 64.1 IP; 42 K; 30 BB (Signed minor league deal w/ New York Mets)
• Bobby Keppel – 4.83 ERA; 1.56 WHIP; 54.0 IP; 32 K; 21 BB (Signed w/ Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters)
• P Ron Mahay – 2.00 ERA; 1.11 WHIP; 9.0 IP; 8 K; 3 BB (with Twins); 4.29 ERA; 1.67 WHIP; 50.1 IP; 42 K; 22 BB (Overall) (Unsigned FA)
• P Boof Bonser – Missed all of 2009 (Traded to Boston)

New Faces

• SS JJ Hardy – .229/.302/.357 (Acquired via Carlos Gomez trade)
• SP Carl Pavano – 4.64 ERA; 1.37 WHIP; 73.2 IP; 59 K; 16 BB (with Twins); 5.10 ERA; 1.38 WHIP; 199.1 IP; 147 K; 39 BB (Overall) (Re-signed one-year, $7MM; accepted arbitration)
• DH Jim Thome – .246/.366/.481 (Signed one-year, $1.5MM)
• 2B Orlando Hudson – .283/.357/.417 (Signed one-year, $5MM)
• RP Clay Condrey – 3.00 ERA; 1.21 WHIP; 42.0 IP; 25 K; 14 BB (Signed one-year, $900K
• Notable minor league signings: OF Jacque Jones, P Mike Maroth

The biggest losses from last year clearly are Gomez, Redmond and Cabrera, even though he was a partial season rental. The Gomez for Hardy swap will be interesting to follow over the next few years for one reason; he was the centerpiece of the Johan Santana trade, and the only player that seems to be somewhat legitimate. When a superstar is traded away, or in this case, one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball, you would like to make sure at least one player you receive in return becomes a staple in your lineup/rotation. With Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey appearing to be basically washes, and Deolis Guerra struggling in the minors, it would seem that Gomez would have had to be that guy.

If this deal works out, and JJ Hardy “is what Brewers fans once thought he was,” then this will be viewed as a successful deal, but if Gomez goes to Milwaukee and turns into a 30-30 type player with perennial gold glove defense (as he has been projected to be in the past), we could be kicking ourselves. As a side note, there were a lot of things to love about Gomez; his speed, his gold glove caliber defense (I still believe he is one of the top 2 defensive centerfielders in baseball, Franklin Gutierrez being the other), and his general “youthful exuberance” which was always a nice spark to have. However, I will not miss him taking mammoth hacks at off-speed pitches nowhere close to the strike zone in favorable 2-0 or 3-1 counts, having extreme trouble knowing which base to throw the baseball to in just about every situation, or his general “brain farts” that you can come to expect from young players.

When it comes to Redmond, amongst other things, his naked walks through the clubhouse will definitely be missed, and although you may scoff at that notion, those types of things are exactly what made Mike Redmond so valuable to this team over the past 5 seasons. He was a veteran presence in a locker room with a lot of young guys, and he was always there to lighten the mood, but he was also a competitor, who knew when to turn it on and off. In his first two seasons with the Twins, he put up some nice numbers in a limited role, hitting over .300 twice, with a .341 average in 190 PA in 2006. He also filled in quite nicely for Joe Mauer through some injuries, and various off days. With Jose Morales, Drew Butera and Wilson Ramos in our minor league system, and Redmond not getting any younger, it just didn’t make sense for the Twins to retain him.

If you asked Ron Gardenhire (prior to the signing of Orlando Hudson), he may tell you that the biggest loss of the offseason was not signing Orlando Cabrera. From the moment the Twins acquired him last season, he brought a certain energy to this team, which provided enough oomph (yes I used that word), to get them over the hump and eventually win the division. He was exactly what the Twins needed at that time; he was a proven winner, and had been in those types of situations before, he provided a defensive presence at shortstop (even though his range was declining), and he gave us somebody who could hold down the number 2 spot in the lineup, setting the table for Joe Mauer, Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer. His energy may be missed this season, but believe me, the Twins will be just fine up the middle.

Now on to the additions, first looking at Carl Pavano and Clay Condrey, the two pitching acquisitions of the offseason. Condrey is a sinker ball type pitcher with an extremely high groundball rate, he won’t wow anybody with velocity or strike many guys out, but he will be solid out of the bullpen, and we got him fairly cheap.

To me, Pavano accepting arbitration and eventually agreeing to a one-year, $7MM deal was an extremely important piece to the offseason puzzle. Some may look at his numbers over the past few seasons, see his high ERA and lack of innings pitched and disagree with me, but if you look a bit deeper, you will see why I believe this. Pavano pitched nearly 200 innings last year, with an ERA of 4.64, and 147 strikeouts. Although he gave up the most earned runs of his career (113 ER), there may be an explanation. Pavano’s BABIP (batting average on balls in play) which measures the batting average of baseballs only hit in play, not including strikeouts, etc., was the second highest of his career at .335, well above the major league average of .303. This shows that Pavano had some bad luck once balls were hit into play. If that number lowers, closer to the league average, look for Pavano’s ERA to come down as well.

People also seem to forget just how well Pavano pitched down the stretch for the Twins last season. The Twins pitching staff was in absolute disarray last season when Pavano came in and provided a bit of stability. Look for that to continue again this season, with a rotation that includes a rotation filled with guys who somehow continued to be looked at as “young.” For a staff that lacks a true ace, Pavano should provide some much needed veteran leadership.

The acquisition of JJ Hardy, as I mentioned earlier, will be an interesting deal to examine over the next few seasons. Obviously, if his 2009 season was just a bump in the road, and Hardy returns to his 2007-2008 form there will be no examination needed as the deal would be deemed an instant success. Anytime you would be able to bring in an all-star caliber shortstop with 25-30 homerun power to hold down a position that has been an absolute black hole for your franchise, that would be considered a good thing. However, I will say, if “ifs and buts were candies and nuts, we would all have a Merry Christmas...” The bottom line is, Hardy is going to have to forget about 2009, and return to his 2007-2008 form to prove that this was a good deal. Twins fans are well aware that past success doesn’t necessarily guarantee future success (see Delmon Young for Matt Garza/Jason Bartlett swap). The huge positive out of all this is that the Twins know who their opening day shortstop is, and believe they have a guy who will hold down the position for years to come.

The signings of Jim Thome and Orlando Hudson are really where the Twins proved that they are looking to be more than just a division champion this season. Clearly they believe they are championship contenders right now, and are looking to be more than just a doormat for the Yankees or Red Sox march to a World Series. The Thome signing was great for two reasons; they signed him for dirt cheap (one-year $1.5MM), and he provides a bench presence that will actually cause opposing managers to alter pitching decisions based on matchups. Let’s face it, Jim Leyland wasn’t sitting in the dugout during game 163 thinking to himself, “hmmm... I could bring in Fernando Rodney, but then they would just counter with Brian Buscher, and we sure as heck don't want to see him come to the plate!...” My point is, Jim Thome is a big time power threat coming off the bench, and will get somewhere around 350 plate appearances through being a DH and pinch hitting. On the days when Thome might DH, the Twins could have six guys in the lineup with 20 HR type power (if Hardy returns to 2007-2008 form).

The Orlando Hudson was the biggest signing of the offseason, and clearly the one that made the most noise across the baseball media world. This was the signing that caused writers to say, “the Twins are looking for more than just a first round exit in the playoffs this season.” I love the Hudson signing for so many reasons; I believe that Hudson was the best available second base option this offseason, he is a gold glove defender, he fits perfectly into the number 2 spot of this lineup, and he is a veteran that knows how to win. The Twins opening day lineup should look something like this; Span, Hudson, Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Young, Hardy, Punto. With Span and Hudson setting the table for Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer and Kubel, this lineup should score a lot of runs. Let’s not forget that Thome will be sprinkled in there occasionally as well. The signing of Hudson also makes the Twins rock solid defensively in the infield, allowing Punto to focus solely on third base, possibly in a platoon with Brendan Harris.

After looking at the busy offseason the Minnesota Twins have had, and taking into consideration the moves that other AL Central teams have made, I expect the Twins to win between 87-90 games and win the division. I expect the White Sox to finish second behind possibly the 2nd best starting rotation in baseball with Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Freddy Garcia. The Detroit Tigers’ signing of Johnny Damon caused me to reconsider placing them 3rd in my predictions, but I still see them falling short of the White Sox simply because of pitching. Although the Tigers will have a solid rotation featuring Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer, I just think that the losses of Curtis Granderson and Placido Polanco are too big for this team. Rounding out my AL Central predictions are the Indians coming in 4th due to rebuilding, and the Royals in 5th who seem to be constantly rebuilding.

This is my first time doing a complete offseason review, complete with predictions, and as a result I will be forced to be held accountable for these predictions throughout the season, and may end up eating my words. One thing is for sure, I am extremely excited about what the Twins did this offseason, being very active and clearly showing a commitment to winning right now. Opening day is only 34 days away, this should be a fun ride!