“Super Pavario” Outduels “Doc Halladay”

If that title doesn’t sound like either a comic book or a video game than I don’t know what would.

Sporting one of the fullest and creepiest moustaches I have ever seen, Carl Pavano pitched the Twins to a series win yesterday afternoon against the Philadelphia Phillies. Pavano went the distance, marking the second time he has done so this year. His line for the day included 1 run on 4 hits while walking none and striking out just 2. Pavano didn’t need many strikeouts as he claimed 14 of his 27 outs via ground balls.

Other than making him far less popular with the ladies, Pavano’s newfound facial hair has provided him with somewhat of a performance boost. Over his last 3 appearances vs. the Royals, Rockies and Phillies (the mustache first appeared prior to his outing against the Royals) Pavano is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 24 IP with 3 walks and 8 strikeouts.

This is exactly what the Twins pictured when they avoided arbitration by inking the Super Mario lookalike to a 1-year $7MM deal last offseason. A solid veteran presence who can pitch late into games, induce a lot of ground balls, and win 12-15 ballgames with an ERA below 4.00. One thing is for sure, with the rumors swirling around about Minnesota being a possible destination for Cliff Lee, I would be extremely comfortable with a postseason rotation that includes Liriano, Lee, Pavano and more than likely Baker.

I would fully support the idea of the entire Twins roster growing moustaches. If they have the same effect on everybody as they did on Pavano, the Twins may begin to resemble the 1927 Yankees in terms of their on-field performance (as those moustaches clearly wouldn’t fit the “clean cut” dress code of the pinstripes).

One area that I have failed to write about yet this season, and I feel is being overlooked is the success of the leftfielder for our beloved Twins. Delmon Young has “quietly” been putting up some monster numbers this year out of the 7 spot in the lineup. Outside of Justin Morneau, who is having an MVP caliber season, the argument can be made that Delmon Young has been the Twins’ second best hitter this season.

I am not trying to make a case that Delmon Young is somehow a better hitter than Joe Mauer, because we all know that would be ridiculous and asinine. But in terms of numbers, Young currently not only has a higher batting average than Mr. Mauer, but has also driven in more runs, while also clobbering nearly 3 times as many homeruns. Young’s statistics through .306/.343/.502 with 8 HR and 43 RBI, and those 43 RBIs are second on the Twins only to Justin Morneau’s 47.

Another area that has also been overlooked is the number of “clutch hits” that Young has this season. He has, on multiple occasions, delivered a big hit for the Twinkies at just the right time, with his latest coming on Saturday afternoon vs. the Phillies when he singled in the top of the 11th inning to give the Twins an 11-10 lead they would not relinquish.

Although I believe his decreased playing weight this season (Young lost 35 pounds in the offseason) has given more speed, quickness and flexibility, I fully believe that Young’s emergence in 2010 has mostly to do with his age. People forget that young is merely 24 years old and yet is already playing in his 5th major league season. Most players by age 24 are either just reaching the majors or beginning their 2nd or 3rd years.

People were way too quick in writing off Young as a “bust” based on his first two seasons with the Twins. He is just now developing the plate discipline and baseball IQ necessary to be a star in this league, and I don’t see his 2010 numbers as a fluke. I fully expect Young to be one of our better players for the remainder of the year, and to be a staple in left field for the Twins in years to come.

The Twins’ “stretch of aces” continues this week as they are set to face Yovani Gallardo Thursday afternoon in Milwaukee and Johan Santana Saturday in New York. This stretch of interleague road games comes to an end Sunday in New York before the Twins return home for a fun 7 game home stand when they will face the Tigers for 3 before welcoming the Tampa Bay Rays for 4.

The Hiatus Is Over!

My last legitimate blog post came nearly a month ago, following the 3 game series against the Yankees. Oh how far ago that seems.

The fact of the matter is that I recently moved into a new house with some friends (9 days ago to be exact), and I have been in the process of getting settled in. Throw in the fact that we do not yet have Internet access or cable and that may help to explain the reason why this post is coming 28 days after that May 17^th post.

Since I have last posted, a lot has happened with the Minnesota Twins. As I look back on the last month, I realize that it was basically the worst month to not be blogging due to the innumerable topics that I could have written about. There were numerous times throughout the past 9 days that I thought, “hey, I should blog about that,” and then I realized that I did not have an Internet connection at my newly rented house. The only reason I am able to be writing this post right now is because I recently discovered that one of my neighbors apparently doesn’t believe in locking his wireless network, which doesn’t bother me one bit.

Since that series at Yankee Stadium the Twins have gone 12-13, somehow managing to game a half game in the AL Central standings. Joe Mauer’s batting average has fallen even further from its’ May peak of .364, while Jason Kubel’s average has risen from a “Mendoza-esque” .213 to nearly .250 while also regaining some power. Delmon Young has silenced most critics of the Matt Garza/Jason Bartlett trade, and Orlando Hudson and JJ Hardy have seemed to be taking their advice on how to stay healthy from Eric Chavez.

Let’s also not forget that the Rochester Red Wings made a visit to Target Field to take on the Atlanta Braves Sunday afternoon. The lineup that Ron Gardenhire trotted out against Bobby Cox’s squad was one that even the Orioles or Pirates may have been ashamed to run out there. I realize that Hudson and Hardy are both on the DL, and that Mauer and even Denard Span occasionally need days off, but don’t you think with a day off on Monday (not even a travel day I would like to add) and the NL East-leading braves in town for a Sunday afternoon rubber match, Gardy maybe could have done something a little different?

Needless to say, the end of May and beginning of June has seen some interesting things from the Minnesota Twins. Being the, as Paul Allen would say, “great baseball mind” that I am, I would like to give my thoughts on certain things.

Justin Morneau officially passed Mark Teixeira in the All-Star Game balloting, and now leads the Yankees first baseman by nearly 200,000 votes. This is absolutely the way it should be as Morneau is having an “MVP caliber” season, batting .350/.460/.636 with 13 HR and 43 RBI. Teixeira is hitting a measly .229/.346/.392 with 9 HR and 37 RBI, numbers that aren’t even in the same stratosphere as Morneau’s. If Teixeira somehow ends up regaining the lead and ends up starting for the AL, I may actually vomit.

Joe Mauer leads the American League in All-Star votes with 2,617,822 while putting up a fairly mediocre season. Don’t get me wrong, Lou Marson or Gerald Laird would love to be putting up numbers like Mauer has this season, but when you look at what Mauer did last season after missing all of April, this season doesn’t even compare thus far. Obviously Mauer has lost some of his power due to the fact that Target Field seems to resemble the Polo Grounds at times when balls are hit into the power alleys (where Mauer hits a majority of his homeruns), but he still should have more than 2 homeruns and at least have a few at home.

Francisco Liriano gave the baseball world even more confirmation that he is ready to assume the role of an ace on the Twins pitching staff with his latest outing against the Braves. Liriano and fellow Tommy John “recoveree” Tim Hudson dueled on Friday night, with Liriano getting the best of Hudson, picking up the 2-1 victory while pitching 8 innings, striking out 11 and walking none. Aaron Gleeman wrote an excellent article over at his blog, comparing 2010 Liriano to his former 2006 self.

Over the weekend, rumors emerged around the Twins and Red Sox having discussions involving the Twins acquiring Mike Lowell. I would fully support this move for many reasons. For one, Lowell is a significant upgrade offensively over Nick Punto, who is currently hitting .221/.295/.290, at what is typically a power position in third base. Additionally, although Punto is an above average defender, Lowell is no slouch at the hot corner, and wouldn’t prove to be much of a defensive drop-off. I also believe that given his age (36) and the fact that Adrian Beltre has the third base position locked down for the Red Sox, Lowell would more than likely be able to acquired for mid-level talent, rather than one of our top prospects. All of these factors make this an attractive deal, and considering that the Twins feel they have the pieces in place to make a World Series run, I don’t see why Bill Smith and Company wouldn’t make think long and hard about this.

This is an exciting time of year for not only baseball, but sports in general. The baseball season is entering the “dog days of summer,” the NBA finals are winding down, the NBA draft is a week from Thursday, and the NFL season is right around the corner with OTAs and minicamps already taking place. With me having taken nearly a month off from blogging, I don’t see myself having a shortage of topics to write about in the weeks to come.

Please feel free to comment or e-mail with any feedback or suggestions. In terms of topics and anything related to the blog, I appreciate hearing feedback and accept it openly. If you enjoy reading, tell your friends!

These Aren't Last Year's Twins

2009 was an exciting year for the Minnesota Twins. 162 games were not enough, as they won the American League Central with a record of 87-76 after defeating the Detroit Tigers in game 163. (fun fact: only one person shown in the picture on the right is currently on the Twins major league roster)

Remember last year when the Twins led all of Major League Baseball with a bating average somewhere near .290 with runners in scoring position? The combination of their batting average with RISP, missing Joe Mauer for the first month and Justin Morneau for the last month of the season, and having generally “shaky” starting pitching seems to show that 2009 Twins may have overachieved just a bit.

That is not the case with this year’s squad. Bill Smith and the gang went into last offseason with one goal in mind, to become a legitimate contender, rather than a stepping-stone for the Yankees, Angels, or Red Sox to yet another World Series title. As the offseason came to a close, most Twins fans were extremely optimistic about the moves that had been made, and how this year’s team would fare.

The 2010 season is now 3 weeks old, and the Twins haven’t disappointed. They own the second best record in all of baseball at 13-6, second only to the Tampa Bay Rays. They have a 3 game lead in the Central division over the Detroit Tigers, who they will be facing for the first time this season on Tuesday.

The Twins are off to one of their best starts in franchise history, having won each of their first 6 series to start this season. They have scored the 4^th most runs in all of baseball at an average of 5.32 per game, and have the second best run differential in all of baseball at +31 overall. But what is crazy about all of this is the fact that the Twins have hit poorly with runners in scoring position, and have been downright awful with the bases loaded.

The Twins have hit .262 so far this season with RISP, and they are an abysmal 4 for 26 (.154) with the bases loaded. What does this mean? It means that the 2010 Twins with the second best record in baseball are actually underachieving!

Can you imagine what this season may look like 3 weeks in if the Twins were hitting anywhere close to their mark of last season with RISP, or if they were able to produce with the bases loaded? One thing is for sure; the Twins would be 14-5 rather than 13-6, because the they had the bases loaded twice today in the final game of the series at Kauffman Stadium and were unable to do anything, eventually falling 4-3 to the Royals.

Don’t get me wrong, I am not searching for things that are wrong with this team, nor am I a fatalist who believes the Twins record to be empty and that it is only a matter of time before they come crashing back down to earth. This Twins team is very, very good. They possess the second best record in baseball in spite of their lack of timely hitting because they have played outstanding defense (only 1 error this season), they have pitched very well, and their offense has scored a ton of runs.

I think that Bill Smith should be proud of his offseason work, because I, along with many Twins fans can see that he accomplished what he set out to do. This team is a legitimate contender, and is ready to make a run at the franchise’s 4th World Series title (Twins 3rd). All I have to say is that the rest of the league had better look out, because when the Twins begin producing with RISP and the bases loaded, this lineup could be the most potent in all of baseball.

The "Treasure Island" Twins?

When listening to a Twins game on the radio via AM1500, just before the game begins there is a message that comes across saying “you are listening to a Treasure Island broadcast of Twins Baseball.”

Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano have seemed to take that literally for the last couple of nights, appearing as if they are employed by the casino as they were both absolutely DEALING for 8 innings in their respective starts.

Slowey shut down the Indians for 8 innings on Tuesday night, finishing his 98 pitch outing having only given up one run on 5 hits, striking out 9 while walking none. Slowey essentially made only one mistake; a second inning first pitch fastball that Travis Hafner tagged to right for what would eventually be the Indians’ only run of the night. What impressed me most about Slowey's outing was that he threw 70 of his 98 pitches for strikes, regaining the “Greg Maddux like” control (as Bert Blyleven put it) that he has been known for.

Liriano followed up his superb outing against the Boston Red Sox with another gem Wednesday night against the Indians. Liriano needed only 4 more pitches than Slowey to finish his 8 innings, also throwing 70 of his 102 pitches for strikes. This is a very promising sign for Liriano who struggled mightily with his control last season. He finished the night having given up no runs on 6 hits, striking out 6 while walking 2.

The Twins were actually outhit by the Indians 7 to 6 Wednesday night, but unlike the past week, tonight's hits came with runners in scoring position. Brendan Harris drove in the first run in the second inning on a 2 out single to center, followed up shortly by a 2-run single to center by Denard Span. Michael Cuddyer accounted for the rest of the Twins’ runs, homering to right in the 6^th, and driving in Mauer and Morneau with a triple in the 8^th.

It is officially time to cease speculation regarding whether or not Francisco Liriano is for real. Liriano’s numbers combined through Dominican winter league performance, his dominant spring training, and now his first three outings of the 2010 season look like this: 98.1 innings, 1.19 ERA, 114-21 strikeout to walk ratio. I realize that the winter league and spring training are not the same level of competition that Liriano will face throughout an MLB regular season, but those numbers lead me to the conclusion that Liriano is as close to his 2006 form as the Twins could hope.

Also with tonight’s win, the Twins have won their 5^th consecutive series to begin the season. The only other team in baseball with the possibility of doing that is the Yankees who could do so with a win either tonight or tomorrow against the Athletics.

This Twins team is for real. If they continue to receive starting pitching like they have thus far, and this lineup hits like it should, the American League should watch out!

Random Vikings Update:

• The Vikings signed free agent cornerback Lito Sheppard to a one-year $2MM deal tonight. With the NFL draft beginning tomorrow night, it appears that the Vikings will no longer be looking to draft a CB with the 30^th overall pick, as was expected up until now. This signing also increases speculation that the Vikings will possibly select a quarterback with their pick, more specifically Tim Tebow, whom they have been said to have “serious interest” in over the past couple of weeks. Personally, I like Tebow, and I would like to see the Vikings select him at 30, but I still believe if there is a solid safety available at #30, we will more than likely go that direction.

Please feel free to comment or e-mail me with any feedback or suggestions, but in terms of topics and anything related to the blog. I appreciate receiving feedback and accept it openly. If you enjoy reading, tell your friends!

Reflecting on the Opening Series

Have I mentioned that I love this time of year?

The Twins opened up the 2010 season on Monday night at 9:05 in Anaheim, facing an Angels team that looks a bit different than it did last season. After seeing John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Vladimir Guerrero, Darren Oliver and Gary Matthews Jr. depart via free agency, the Angels signed Hideki Matsui, the 2009 World Series MVP, to make up for the losses of Figgins and Guerrero. They also acquired Joel Pinero and Fernando Rodney to fill the pitching staff voids left by Lackey and Oliver.

There were 2 things I knew for sure going into this series with the Angels; I would not be sleeping much throughout the week, and many Twins fans would make unnecessary assumptions based on the small sample sizes of the season’s first few games.

Both of my assumptions were correct, as I have averaged a mere 6.5 hours of sleep every night since Monday, and following the Twins’ loss Monday night, the phone lines of local sports radio stations and comment sections of blogs were filled with endless negativity making it seem as if the sky were falling.

Denard Span went 0-5 with 3 strikeouts on Monday night, while Carlos Gomez was 4-5 with a double and a homerun in his debut with the Brewers. You would have thought that Gomez was Josh Gibson in the eyes of fatalistic Twins fans. What is it about opening day that makes people believe it is some sort of barometer to how the season will play out? Fun fact: the Twins won division titles in 2006 and 2009 after losing on opening day, so fear not, it is possible to have a successful season in spite of losing the first of 162 games.

I realize that I am losing all credibility for any inferences I might make from the opening series by ripping on people who get worked up over a single game, because let’s face it, the 4 games that make up the opening series are still a small sample size. There still is something that I feel I can comfortably say in regards to this new and improved Minnesota ball club, “these aren’t your daddy’s Twins.”

Gone are the days of the Twins playing the role of the “little engine that could,” both in terms of the size of their payroll and their style of play. No longer will the Twins be forced to scrape and claw for every single run they score through a constant barrage of stolen bases, sacrifice bunts and general “small ball.” This current Twins roster can absolutely mash!

The Twins hit 9 homeruns during the past 4 games, Joe Mauer, Jim Thome and Brendan Harris got into the action, with Justin Morneau, JJ Hardy and Delmon young each hitting a pair. I am not claiming that this year’s team will hit 365 homeruns (which is what they are currently on pace for), eventually shattering the current record of 264 held by the 1997 Seattle Mariners. What I am saying is gone are the days of trotting out an everyday lineup with one guy having the potential to break the 20 homerun barrier (i.e. Morneau was our only 20+ homerun guy in 2008).

This year’s lineup has 7 players with 20+ homerun power (Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel, Thome, Young & Hardy), and 5 of those players have legitimate 30+ homerun power (Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel & Thome). I am not saying that we should expect to have 5 guys with 30 homeruns come season’s end. I don’t believe that Thome will have enough at bats to reach that mark, and I also don’t expect every one of the other four to put up those kind of power numbers all at once.

Pavano had an excellent outing Wednesday evening, giving up only 1 run over 7 innings, while striking out 6 and walking nobody. As I said on the Henry Lake show this past Saturday (as a caller, not as somebody who was being interviewed as a guest), when you look at Pavano’s FIP (4.00) and BABIP (.335) from last season, it becomes clear that his overall numbers were much worse than they should have been. I fully expect his ERA to come down much closer to his FIB of 4.00 than it was last season, and to be much less “unlucky” with his BABIP moving toward the league average of 3.03. Overall, I expect Pavano to have a nice season, surprising many fans with more wins and better numbers.

This Twins team has shown a bit of what they can do this year offensively in just the first 4 games. Also, with the exception of Jose Mijares’ abysmal performance Monday night, the bullpen has shown that it should be strong again this year. Pair that with starting pitching performances that hopefully resemble Pavano’s first start rather than Baker’s, and as I have said before, I believe the Twins to be not only the AL Central champions, but a legitimate World Series contender in 2010.

Opening Day!

I woke up this morning to the sweet sound of John Fogerty singing of beating drums and holding phones all because the sun was out (yes I set my ihome so that I would wake up to that song). With a smile on my face I went toward the window and pulled back the drapes to see if that was indeed the case for me.

Even though the opening day matchup between the Twins and Angels was going to be played 1931 miles away, for some reason the fact that it was sunny outside of my window made me a bit happier.

This day could easily be considered a holiday for me, and quite frankly, even if it were, it wouldn't have been much different because I basically treated it like one. I had trouble focusing, I was antsy, I had an anxious excitement in my stomach throughout the day, it was as if I were an impatient young teenager on the last day of school. All of this for opening day.

Yes I know there will be another 161 games after tonight, and that this game has no additional significance over another aside from the fact that it is the first one. There is just something about opening day that gets me amped up for summer and the baseball season to come.

As I sit here in the 6^th inning, with the Twins trailing 4-3 I have a few random baseball and general sports musings:

• Mark Buehrle pitched extremely well today in the White Sox victory over the Indians 6-0. Buehrle went 7 innings giving up 3 hits with 1 walk and 3 strikeouts. He also turned in one of the best defensive plays I have ever seen by a pitcher.
• I went into my fantasy auction draft last week hoping to pick up Jason Heyward for cheap after learning he would begin the season as the Braves starting right fielder. I was successful as I picked up Heyward for a mere $5. I am almost willing to say that the joy I received from seeing what he did in the Braves home opener today. Not only did he homer in his first major league at bat, he also had a pretty good overall day at the dish in the braves 16-5 rout of the Cubs.
• Albert Pujols is good.
• I am really glad that the Twins front office doesn’t make decisions based on what fans want. Because if they did, we would have Jason Frasor as our closer right now, and he had a rough day, pitching only 1/3 of an inning, giving up 2 runs and blowing a save.
• The Duke Blue Devils are national champions, despite Butler giving them everything they could handle, including a half-court shot from Gordon Hayward at the buzzer that was ridiculously close to going in. Had that shot gone in, Butler would have been crowned national champions, and that shot would have immediately become one of the top 3 shots in NCAA tournament history, right up there with Laettner’s in 1992 and Lorenzo Charles’ in 1983.
• With 161.5 games to go in the Twins season, my “Twins Most Improved Player” pick has started off on the right foot. Delmon Young homered in his first at bat of the season, and then showed off the blazing speed of his now “35 pounds lighter” frame, first by beating out an infield single and then stealing a base later that inning. I seem to recall another Twin homering in his first at-bat of the season last year, and that worked out pretty well…
• I was extremely pleased to see the 5^th inning sequence in which Young hit in an infield single, stole second, JJ Hardy hit a 3-2 pitch to the right side with a clearly intentional inside-out swing, and Nick Punto drove in young with a sacrifice fly. It was very good fundamental baseball, and shows that although we may have “beefed up” our lineup, we still are very good at creating runs, as the Twins have always shown.
• If you would have told me that Delmon Young would hit a homerun in his first plate appearance of the season, and that Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau’s first hits of the year would come on infield singles, I may have laughed at you.

Check back throughout the week for new posts, including an upcoming post giving an economic analysis of Joe Mauer’s contract. I am always looking for ideas to improve the blog, including new poll ideas, writing topics you would like to see, or general suggestions. Feel free to e-mail me or comment with any ideas.

"Prediction Day" & Thoughts

Twins-Specific Predictions

• Twins MVP: Joe Mauer
• Twins Top Pitcher: Kevin Slowey
• Twins Best Rookie: Anthony Slama
• Twins Most Improved Player: Delmon Young
• Bold Predictions (there is a reason these are BOLD predictions)
o Kevin Slowey will win 20 games
o Pat Neshek will save the most games of any current Twins reliever
o Delmon Young will hit 25 homeruns this season
o The Twins will win the regular season series vs. both the Yankees and Red Sox
• A.L. Central Prediction (Standings):
1. Minnesota Twins (92-70)
2. Chicago White Sox (84-78)
3. Detroit Tigers (82-80)
4. Cleveland Indians (72-90)
5. Kansas City Royals (70-92
• Three Keys to Success for the Twins:
1. Health: The Twins have struggled in years past with staying healthy (Michael Cuddyer in 2008, Justin Morneau & Kevin Slowey in 2009, the list could go on and on). If this lineup stays healthy, it will score a ton of runs.

2. Starting Pitching: Somebody needs to emerge as a leader/ace of this staff. They need to break the constant barrage of chatter around how the staff is comprised of number 3 & 4 starters. It could be Liriano finally regaining some of his 2006 form, it could be Scott Baker continuing to improve as he has each of the last 4 years, it could be Kevin Slowey bouncing back from a season ending wrist injuring last year (see “Bold Predictions”). The Twins will score plenty of runs, we just need to make sure we don’t have a team ERA of 6.00

3. Closer Situation: The “closer by committee” approach that Ron Gardenhire will be using to begin the 2010 season cannot go on for the entire season, especially if the Twins see themselves making a deep playoff run. Somebody from the current bullpen needs to emerge as the closer, or the Twins will have to sign (possibly John Smoltz) or trade for somebody prior to July 31st.

Rest of the League Predictions
• A.L. MVP: Joe Mauer
• N.L. MVP: Albert Pujols
• A.L. Cy Young: Zack Greinke
• N.L. Cy Young: Tim Lincecum
• A.L. Rookie of the Year: Brian Matusz
• N.L. Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward

• A.L. Breakout Player of the Year: Max Scherzer
• N.L. Breakout Player of the Year: Jay Bruce
• A.L. Comeback Player of the Year: Josh Hamilton
• N.L. Comeback Player of the Year: Russell Martin
• A.L. Playoff Predictions:
o AL East – New York Yankees (100-62)
o AL Central – Minnesota Twins (92-70)
o AL West – Seattle Mariners (94-68)
o AL Wild Card – Boston Red Sox (95-67)
o AL Champion – Minnesota Twins (defeat Red Sox 4-2 in ALCS)
• N.L. Playoff Predictions:
o NL East – Philadelphia Phillies (94-68)
o NL Central – St. Louis Cardinals (92-70)
o NL West – Colorado Rockies (93-69)
o NL Wild Card – San Francisco Giants (90-72)
o NL Champion – Colorado Rockies (defeat Phillies 4-3 in NLCS)
• World Series Prediction:
o Twins vs. Rockies (defeat Rockies 4-2)

With a new contract signed, and the distractions of contract negotiations in the rearview mirror, Joe Mauer can begin 2010 with a clear mind and focus on doing what he does best, being a stud. I fully expect Mauer to put up monster numbers this season, hopefully contributing to more wins out of the gate (rather than missing the first month of the season as he did in 2009). I am not saying that he will replicate the insane season that he had in 2009, but let’s face it, even if he comes close to those numbers, he will not only be the MVP of the Twins, but also of the American League.

Judging by the spring that he has had, Kevin Slowey’s wrist seems to be just fine heading into the season. Albeit a small sample size, Slowey has posted an ERA 0.56 with only 3 BB in 15 innings this spring, dismissing all of the talk that his control may never be the same following wrist surgery.

It is already beginning to happen in the bullpen, Jose Mijares has blurred vision, Clay Condrey has a sore arm, and it is inevitable that injuries will occur as the season progresses. The first guy to get the call may be Anthony Slama. I was actually hoping he would find a way to make the team out of spring training, but it just didn’t make sense that Slama would leapfrog anybody in the current bullpen. Slama gave up 0 runs and struck out 10 in the 6.2 innings he pitched this spring. Pair that with his outstanding minor league numbers over the past 3 seasons, and it is easy to see why I have tagged him as the “closer of the future” for the Minnesota Twins. Here are Slama’s numbers since 2007:

• 2007 A; 1-1, 1.48 ERA, 10 SV, 24.1 IP, 39 K, 0.99 WHIP
• 2008 A+; 4-1, 1.01 ERA, 25 SV, 71 IP, 110 K, 0.94 WHIP
• 2009 AA-AAA; 4-4, 2.67 ERA, 29 SV, 81 IP, 112 K, 1.20 WHIP

He didn’t dominate at the AAA level following his midseason promotion in 2009, but he still managed to strike out 112 in only 81 IP between AA-AAA. I would put an ETA of Slama at some point in June.

Delmon Young was an easy choice for most improved Twin, due to the fact most other players had great years in 2009, and also the fact that Young not only came to camp in the “best shape of his life,” but also that he has had success throughout the spring. I could have chosen Nick Punto or maybe JJ Hardy, the difference there is that Young’s ceiling is much higher than Punto’s, and JJ Hardy has had two all-star caliber seasons already, and had what I would consider to just be a "down year" in 2009.

The bold predictions speak for themselves, and before anybody rips me on these predictions, let me remind you that the definition of bold is “requiring or exhibiting courage and bravery.” Therefore I am not saying that I expect all of these things to happen, I am simply going out on a limb to make these predictions based mostly on a “hunch” or a feeling.

I discussed how I believed the AL Central would shake out in my post, “Examining the Twins Offseason.” I still believe the Twins will win the division, with the White Sox finishing second behind one of the strongest starting rotations in baseball, the Tigers coming in third behind a solid starting rotation as well, and strong contributions from a couple of young talents in Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore. The Indians and Royals are both rebuilding, and I expect them both to finish well below .500, and although I have them pegged to finish last, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Kansas City finish 4th in the division, ahead of Cleveland.

Looking at my predictions for the rest of the league, I feel that I should provide at least some sort of reasoning to support my decisions. As I mentioned earlier, if Mauer comes even close to the season he had in 2009, he will not only be the MVP of the Twins but also the American League. Albert Pujols is Albert Pujols... Need I say more? I expect Greinke to have a similar season to what he did last year, possibly with a bit higher ERA but more wins. As I said with Albert Pujols, Tim Lincecum is Tim Lincecum... He is going to strikeout a ton of people, have a low ERA, and win a lot of games for a San Francisco Giants team that has a shot to win the NL West this year.

My AL Rookie of the Year prediction is a bit of a shot in the dark, but I expect Brian Matusz to have a good year on the mound for a Baltimore Orioles team that has to face the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays each 19 times a year. If he has a good year in that division, I expect him to win it. Jason Heyward is a unique talent who was just handed the starting RF job for the Atlanta Braves out of spring training as a 20 year old. That doesn’t just happen... He is a guy with enormous power, and is extremely patient at the plate for any hitter, let alone a 20 year old rookie. He could have some competition if Stephen Strasburg lights the world on fire when he is called up, but I expect Heyward to win it. Hardball Talk recently wrote about the possibilities of what Heyward could do this season.

I remember hearing Max Scherzer being touted in 2007 amongst fantasy baseball experts as the “next Tim Lincecum,” due to his excellent fastball and high strikeout rates in the minors. He wasn’t spectacular when coming up with the Diamondbacks in 2008, and followed that up with an average to below-average season in 2009. I expect with the change of scenery by moving to Detroit this offseason that Scherzer will find some success this year with the Tigers. Jay Bruce is pretty much the same story as Scherzer. Highly touted throughout the minors, but not sensational when called up with the Reds. I expect both Scherzer and Bruce to breakout this season, but to be completely honest this is as much of a shot in the dark as anything.

The comeback player of the year is a little less of a complete gamble, due mainly to the fact that the candidates have had some success in the past, and either experienced a down year or went through injury ridden seasons the year before. Both scenarios apply to my choice in the American League, as Josh Hamilton not only struggled mightily in 2009, but was also limited to 89 games and only 365 plate appearances. Hamilton hit .268/.315/.426 with only 10 HR during his limited time in 2009, after he absolutely set the baseball world on fire during a 2008 season in which he hit .304/.371/.530 with 32 HR and 130 RBI. I expect Hamilton to return to numbers a lot closer to those of 2008 as long as he stays healthy. My pick in the National League, Russell Martin, did not struggle with injuries in 2009, but rather just struggled at the plate. Martin hit .250/.352/.329 with only 7 HR and 53 RBI in 2009. This came after averaging a line of .285/.371/.434 with 10 HR and 74 RBI from 2006-2008. I expect Martin to come back from his current groin injury and return to performing similar to how he performed from 2006-2008.

Finally, I see the playoff picture shaping up to be a World Series matchup between the Twins and Rockies. In the AL I have the Twins defeating the Yankees 3 games to 1 in the ALDS, and the Red Sox 4 games to 2 in the ALCS. In the NL I have the Rockies defeating the Cardinals 3 games to 2 in the NLDS, and the Phillies 4 games to 3 in the NLCS. I then have the Twins going on to win the World Series by defeating the Rockies 4 games to 2.

This idea of a prediction day, similar to “Nick Punto Day” on February 12 was exciting to me. Then once I began writing I realized that for the first time, my preseason baseball predictions would be documented on my blog for all to see, and as a result I will not only be held to them, but also be able to see just how “off” I can be. I am excited to look back at these following the 2010 season, and hopefully I will find most of them to be true (mainly the World Series prediction). Let the games begin!

"A Day That Will Live In Infamy" (for White Sox, Tigers, Indians & Royals fans...)

UPDATE: I updated the title of this blog post, thanks mostly in part to the true definition of the word "infamy" being brought to my attention. I now know just how fitting the word truly was when, FDR used it to describe the bombing of Pearl Harbor. I realize that even to fans of the Twins' divisional opponents, the signing of Mauer will not be viewed as "evil reputation brought about by something grossly criminal, shocking, or brutal" or "an extreme and publicly known criminal or evil act." However, it is certainly more fitting for them than it is for Twins fans...

Sunday, March 21^st, 2010, a day that will live in infamy in the minds of Minnesota Twins fans, the day the Minnesota Twins signed Joe Mauer to what is essentially a lifetime contract. I realize that comparing the signing to the bombing of Pearl Harbor on December 7^th, 1941 through the utilization of the statement made by Franklin Delano Roosevelt may be a bit inappropriate. However, I found justification in the fact this day will live in infamy for reasons much different than those of the beginning of U.S. involvement in World War II in the minds of Twins fans.

Joseph Patrick Mauer will, barring some sort of unforeseen last-minute contract hang-up, be a Minnesota Twin for life. Mauer and the Twins reached an agreement this evening on an 8 year contract worth $184MM, which also includes a full no-trade clause. The contract details have not yet officially been released, and will more than likely be revealed following the press conference set for tomorrow evening at 6:00 p.m. Initial reports are that the deal will pay Mauer $23MM over 8 years, obviously including no deferred payments.

This deal will go into affect at the beginning of the 2011 season, as this season Mauer is entering the final year of a 4-year, $33MM contract where he is set to make $12.5MM over the course of 2010. With Mauer turning 27 later this year, this new contract will keep him a Minnesota Twin until the age of 35, covering what most baseball experts would deem as his “prime years.” More than just that, this ensures that the face of the Minnesota Twins franchise will remain in Minnesota more than likely for his entire career.

Signing Mauer to a deal of this magnitude both in terms of number of years and compensation marks an entrance into new territory by the Minnesota Twins. This has been regarded for months as a “deal that must get done,” with many writers stating it as “not if, but when” the deal would be done. This is less about keeping the “good ol’ Minnesota boy in town,” and more about signing one of the games elite players to a lifetime deal, as Buster Olney alludes to:

“Mauer is generally regarded as the American League's best player and may be baseball's most coveted player, given his unique set of skills. Mauer, who turns 27 next month, already has won three batting titles and two Gold Glove Awards, and last year, he began to hit for power, posting a 1.031 OPS.

--snip--

The Twins' signing of Mauer to a long-term deal is going to be viewed as a strong development for Major League Baseball, at a time when there are growing concerns about the disparity between teams like the Yankees and Red Sox, and teams that generate less revenue like the Rays, Athletics and Twins.”

As Olney alludes to in the second portion of his article, the signing of Mauer long-term is a very good thing for Major League Baseball. The gap between teams like the Yankees and Red Sox and teams like the Minnesota Twins is hopefully closing. Any baseball fan knows that over the past decade or two, the competitive balance in baseball has favored large market franchises with payrolls sometimes 4-5 times the size of their small market competitors.

This contract is the first tangible benefit that Target Field has provided for the Minnesota Twins franchise. They would have no more had the financial flexibility to pay Mauer this type of money while still playing in the Metrodome, as I have the financial flexibility to purchase a private aircraft! The Twins have always held true to a business model in which their payroll for any given season is around 52% of their forecasted revenue. The Twins can now expect revenues upward of $200MM, and as a result can afford to not only have payrolls of $100MM or more, but also to retain elite players past their arbitration years.

Most importantly, this shows commitment on the part of the Minnesota Twins to winning. Signing Mauer to a contract of this length gives them the best chance at winning, not only now, but long-term as well. This essentially ensures that Justin Morneau will remain in Minnesota for the remainder of his career, and also will entice future free agents to sign with the Twins. This signing, partnered with the continued success of minor league player development, should ensure that the Twins remain extremely competitive, and more than likely contenders for years to come.

One thing that is for sure, Bill Smith has proved his doubters wrong. He took over as general manager at a very difficult time when two of the faces of this franchise, Torii Hunter and Johan Santana, had their minds set on leaving. Hunter, for some reason wanted out, and decided to sign with the Angels during the 2008 offseason, and Johan Santana was set on playing for a team in a larger market, forcing Smith’s hand in trading him to the New York Mets. Couple that with Smith’s trade sending Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett to Tampa Bay in exchange for Delmon Young, which up until this point has been deemed a bust, left most Twins fans calling for Smith’s head.

This Mauer signing has put the icing on the cake to one of the best offseasons of any MLB team, and probably one of the best Twins offseasons ever. With the free agent signings of Clay Condrey, Jim Thome, and Orlando Hudson, the trade for JJ Hardy, and extensions for Nick Blackburn, Denard Span, and now Joe Mauer, Bill Smith has now shown that he isn’t quite as bad at his job as people had originally thought. I officially take back everything bad that I have said about Bill Smith, and fully believe that he is approaching the GM status that Terry Ryan possessed prior to resigning from that position in 2007.

One thing is for sure, the Minnesota Twins are no longer the “little engine that could,” they have firmly cemented themselves as a “locomotive” that is ready to compete with the likes of the Yankees and the Red Sox. Gone are the days of contentment with just “being there,” and first round playoff exits. Joe Mauer and the Minnesota Twins are here to stay!

Check back within the next few days for a new post including pictures, regarding my recent visit to Target Field!